How Will the War End?

In the early morning of Saturday, February 28, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike on his Tehran compound.

Since being selected as Iran's Supreme Leader by a council of clerics in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei has maintained a steady grip on Iran's politics, its armed forces, and its secret services. He repeatedly defeated challenges to the ruling system through the use of violence—a powerful figure who saw himself as God's representative on Earth. Today, thick smoke rises over the Persian Gulf and Iran, providing a clear picture of the future.

How We Got Here

Iran’s conflict with the U.S. began after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when radical Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held 66 American diplomats’ hostage for 444 days. From that point, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini became a global figure. It was not only an embarrassment; they humiliated the U.S. as a superpower, and the United States has never forgiven nor forgotten it.

Iran’s revolution shifted from anti-Zionism to an anti-imperialistic force. The next major attack from Iran was through its proxy group, Hezbollah, which killed over 300 American Marines in Lebanon in the early 1980s. That marked the beginning of a long-standing conflict between the two countries.

The U.S. and Oil

Until recent years, most of the world's fossil fuel exports came from countries around the Persian Gulf. As the only superpower in the West, the U.S. had an obligation to protect those countries, and they, in turn, supported the U.S. agenda in the region. They invested their financial surpluses from oil production in the West, and their weapon arsenals were sourced from there as well. At the same time, the Middle East was a stage for two superpowers: the USA and the USSR. The Soviet Union shared the aim of controlling oil to gain global influence.

Changing Forces

The collapse of the Ottoman Empire led to the creation of many of the Middle Eastern countries we know today. Since the end of WWII, old colonial powers like France and England have been in decline, while the USA and the USSR rose to prominence. The Soviet Union's plan to control the Middle East after WWII began with the occupation of Iran, but the USA forced them to withdraw their troops, and Iran became a Western ally.

Both superpowers sought power and influence, leading to almost constant violent conflict through several regional wars. However, these wars were generally controllable and manageable by the two superpowers. The USA supported oil-producing countries, while the Soviet Union backed newly established Arab nations like Syria, Egypt, and Iraq.

Islamic Forces

These countries had, and still have, border disputes with their neighbors. The creation of the State of Israel in the heart of the region led various military leaders to launch wars against their new neighbor—only to face defeat. Repeated failures against a powerful Israeli army forced them to reconsider their military strategies.

Simultaneously, the project of creating modern nation-states and societies across the Middle East largely failed. In response, a movement emerged to return to traditional roots and culture. Islam and the "glory days" of the Arab and Ottoman Empires became the archetype for this shift.

Iran and the Revolution

Khomeini spoke the same language and desire: Islam is the answer to all modern problems. He aimed to dominate the Middle East, but the USA and its allies were there to protect their interests. Throughout its history, Iran has had an agenda to be a regional superpower. While the Shah had a large, modern army, his regime was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution. Khomeini maintained a dominant strategy, and his successor, Ali Khamenei, built proxy forces across the region to materialize this vision. They constantly attacked U.S. interests globally in an attempt to drive the U.S. out of the region.

Following the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, Sunni movements became more militant. They sought a united Islamic Arab empire—an idea originally advocated by Gamal Abdel Nasser (1918–1970), who failed to create a Pan-Arab union. These various Islamic groups have also failed, resulting in endless wars against their own people and, specifically, against the U.S. and Israel.

China and the U.S. shadow

When Barack Obama announced a shift in U.S. foreign policy in November 2011, calling it a "pivot to Asia" or "rebalancing," he aimed to move U.S. focus away from the Middle East and Europe toward the Asia-Pacific region. China is a rising superpower with a vast need for resources to sustain its domination. This shift focused U.S. attention on China, with many analysts assuming a conflict was inevitable. Since then, every U.S. president has been och would be judged by their ability to prevent China from surpassing the USA, much like the containment of the USSR during the Cold War.

The U.S. is aware that its armed forces cannot fight on four fronts simultaneously: against China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. China possesses a modern industrial capacity that allows its products to reach every corner of the globe—something the USSR was never able to achieve.

The Trump administration believed now was the best time to confront Iran, whose economy is struggling and whose fiscal policy is near collapse. Furthermore, the Iranian population has repeatedly risen against the regime. Many are Western-oriented and could become reliable allies to the U.S. and Israel in the future. In December 2025, a massacre took place in Iran, shocking the world with horrifying news.

Operation Epic Fury

Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent conflict, Iran became a focal target as the central support for anti-Israeli and anti-American groups. In the summer of 2025, the Israeli military, with American assistance, destroyed Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and killed the scientists involved in the program. The world was surprised by the relative ease with which Israel accomplished this.

Now, we are witnessing a new war again. This second phase began on February 28 of this year. Iran stands against two mighty militaries: the U.S. and Israel. While it is clear that Iran’s conventional army cannot sustain a prolonged fight, the leadership—like many collapsing dictatorships throughout history—believes they can win. The ultimate outcome of this war remains to be seen, but it may mark the beginning of rebuilding Iran into a nation-state where the rule of law finally prevails.